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Betting On The NFL - A Winning Guide

When the NFL season kicks off, fans worldwide prepare to indulge in the excitement of betting on their favorite teams. The prospect of winning big keeps the adrenaline pumping, and for those who know the game inside out, it's more than just a pastime.

Author:Henrik SchmidtMay 01, 2023
When the NFL season kicks off, fans worldwide prepare to indulge in the excitement of betting on their favorite teams. The prospect of winning big keeps the adrenaline pumping, and for those who know the game inside out, it's more than just a pastime. But what does it take to become a successful NFL bettor? In this thrilling guide, we'll discuss various types of bets, reveal some insightful statistics, and offer tips to help you gain a winning edge.

Know Your Bets

To achieve success, you must understand the various types of bets available. The three most popular bets are the moneyline, point spread, and over/under.


Moneyline bets are the easiest type of bet for beginners. All you do is pick the team you believe will most likely win the game. The odds are set based on each team's perceived strength. For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs upcoming oddsare-200 and the Raiders are at +180, a $200 bet on the Chiefs would yield a $100 profit if they win. Conversely, a $100 bet on the Raiders would result in a $180 profit if they emerge victorious.

Point Spread

Point spread bets level the playing field by assigning a handicap to the favored team. For instance, if the point spread is set at-3.5 for the Chiefs, they must win by at least 4 points for you to win the wager. However, if you bet on the Raiders at +3.5, they can either lose by no more than 3 points or win the game outright for you to secure a payout.


Also known as the total, the over/under bet involves predicting whether the combined points scored by both teams will be over or under a predetermined number. For example, if the over/under is set at 45.5 points and the final score is 28-20, the 48 combined points mean the over wins.

Dive Deep into Statistics

A key to winning at NFL betting is staying well-informed. Delve deep into team and player numbers to identify patterns and trends that can give you an edge. Here are some examples of statistics to consider:

Home/Away Performance

Teams often perform differently in their home city. For instance, on average, home teams win 57% of games. By evaluating these trends, you can make more educated decisions.

Weather Conditions

Bad weather can significantly impact the outcome of a game. In 2019, teams playing games with temperatures below 32°F had a combined under record of 23-10. Keep an eye on the forecast and adjust your bets accordingly.
Additionally, keep an eye on the wind. Anything over 20 mph heavily impacts the passing game and field goal tries. Teams will rely more on the run, leading to less points in a game.


Injuries to key playerscan significantly affect a team's performance. For example, a star quarterback's absence can result in lower-scoring games, making unders more attractive.

Develop a Betting Strategy

Having a solid strategy in place is essential to long-term betting success. Here are some tips to help you create a winning game plan:

Manage Your Bankroll

Establish a betting budget and stick to it. Never risk more than you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses. The recommended wager amount should never exceed 2-5% of your bankroll on any single bet.

Shop Around for the Best Odds

Odds can vary between sportsbooks, so always seek to find the best value for your bets. You can use odds comparison websites to help you identify the most favorable numbers.

Track Your Bets

Maintain a record of all your wagers, including the teams, bet types, odds, and outcomes. This will help you identify patterns in your betting behavior, pinpoint areas for improvement, and refine your strategy over time.

Stay Disciplined

Avoid emotional betting, and don't let your personal biases influence your decisions. Stick to your strategy and make knowledgeable decisions based on data and research rather than intuition.

Explore Advanced Betting Techniques

Once you've mastered the basics, you can experiment with more advanced betting techniques to further increase your chances of winning:


These involve combining multiple bets into one, offering higher potential payouts but at a greater risk. For example, you could bet on three moneyline favorites to win in a parlay, and if all three win, you'll enjoy a larger payout than if you had bet on them individually. However, if just one team loses, your entire parlay bet fails.


This bet allows you to adjust the point spread or over/under lines in your favor in exchange for lower potential payouts. For example, if you want to bet on a favorite with a-7.5 point spread, you could "tease" the line down six points to-1.5, increasing your chances of winning but reducing your potential payout. Like a parlay, you can combine this bet with two or more plays where you can adjust the spread; the more games you add to your teaser, the bigger your payout. However, you must hit on all your teasers to win money.

Live Betting

Live betting, or in-play betting, allows you to place bets on games already in progress. This can be a great way to capitalize on changing dynamics during the game or to hedge your pre-game bets.


Betting on the NFL can be a thrilling and potentially lucrative pastime, but success requires research, discipline, and a deep understanding of the various bet types. By developing a solid strategy, diving deep into statistics, and experimenting with advanced betting techniques, you can maximize your chances of winning and enjoy the excitement of NFL betting.
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Henrik Schmidt

Henrik Schmidt

Henrik Schmidt is a dedicated writer focusing on sports, betting, and various entertainment aspects related to the sporting world. With a passion for exploring the intersections of sports and entertainment, Henrik brings a unique perspective to his articles. His expertise in these areas ensures that readers receive informative and engaging content, making him a valuable contributor to the sporting community.
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